2015 Giro d’Italia: first rest day analysis
The 98th Giro d’Italia takes its first rest day Monday, allowing the riders and fans to draw a breath after a frantic, dramatic opening nine stages. Let’s take a look at some of the action from the first week and the trends that have developed.
First, here’s the GC and jerseys
1) Alberto Contador (Spain/Tinkoff-Saxo) 38:31:35
2) Fabio Aru (Italy/Astana) +0:03
3) Richie Porte (Australia/Sky) +0:22
4) Mikel Landa (Spain/Astana) +0:46
5) Dario Cataldo (Italy/Astana) +1:16
6) Roman Kreuziger (Czech Republic/Tinkoff-Saxo) +1:46
7) Giovanni Visconti (Italy/Movistar) +2:02
8) Rigoberto Uran (Colombia/Etixx-QuickStep) +2:10
9) Damiano Caruso (Italy/BMC) +2:20
10) Andrey Amador (Costa Rica/Movistar) +2:24
21) Ryder Hesjedal (Canada/Cannondale-Garmin) +6:16
Mountains jersey: Simon Geschke (Germany/Giant-Alpecin)
Points jersey: Elia Viviani (Italy/Sky)
Youth jersey: Fabio Aru
Team: Astana
And Then There Were Three: It really is a three-way race between the Spaniard, the Italian and the Australian at this point, with Landa poised to pick up any pieces. The gaps between race leader Contador, Aru and Porte have stayed about the same as they were after the opening team time trial. Contador has toughed out a shoulder injury and, like Porte, won’t be dropped by Aru, who is doing most of the attacking.
Porte is best positioned with the 59.4-km time trial looming on Stage 14, and I expect him to take over the pink jersey that day. Contador and Aru will have to start chipping away at the Australian’s gap the very next stage, which ends on the Cat. 1 Madonna di Campiglio climb in the Dolomites, and would be well advised to try to gain time on the Cat. 4 ascent that ends Stage 12 as well.
Rigoberto Uran has been found wanting on nearly every stage, but he will use the chrono to rise up the GC .
Domenico Pozzovivo (Italy/Ag2r) was a pre-race hopeful, but he came to grief on stage 3 in a horrifying crash.
Ryder Hesjedal: The Canadian has been climbing up the GC over the last five stages after his podium hopes unraveled on Stage 4’s Passo del Termine when he didn’t make the selection and came in five-minutes in arrears of the Big Three. The Cannondale-Garmin rider will continue to claw his way into the teens, but I don’t think he’ll rise as far as 9th, his placing last year. A stage win is a possibility too.
The Youth: Hesjedal’s young Italian teammate Davide Formolo and Jan Polanc (Slovenia/Lampre) have both won stages in their second full seasons as pros. Formolo seems destined for greatness, but, racing in his first Grand Tour, he has dropped out of the top-ten. I expect Hesjedal and Formolo to move closer to each other in GC.
The Sprinters: Though the WorldTour’s fastmen haven’t mobbed the start list of the 2015 Giro, the competition has nonetheless been intriguing. Viviani, former pink jersey wearer Michael Matthews (Australia/Orica-GreenEdge), André Greipel (Germany/Lotto-Soudal) and Diego Ulissi (Italy/Lampre) have all won sprints, and the red jersey struggle between Viviani and Greipel will continue all the way to Milan. The upcoming week has two stages very likely to conclude in a bunch sprint—the first stage after the rest day and Stage 13, which is dead flat.
Italian Success: Italian riders have won four out of the eight road stages, and you have to go back to Alessandro Petacchi’s heyday of 2009 to find that kind of home success. There are also four Italians in the top-ten of the GC and six in the top-14. The red and white jerseys are on Italian shoulders. An Italian from an Italian wildcard team seems to win at least one stage at every Giro, and Aru is destined to take a stage, so the tifosi have more to look forward to.
Have Tinkoff-Saxo and Astana Worked Too Much? Astana has almost been hyperactive in the first week, driving the pace day after day. Except for Stage 5’s finish on the summit of Abetone, Contador has had good support from his squad too. Sky has turned up in numbers only a couple of times at the pointy end of the peloton and will be the fresher bunch later in the race. Again, this is a factor that works in Porte’s favour. Both Astana and Tinkoff may have too little in the tank for the crucial final week.
