100th Giro d’Italia final rest day: Is the podium race the best competition now?

The 100th Giro d’Italia enters its final, difficult week with Tom Dumoulin leading the race by 2:41. Except for Blockhaus and the six seconds he conceded to Nairo Quintana on Sunday’s elite group sprint, the Butterfly of Maastrict has been unmovable in this race. At this point, is the podium battle the more compelling one?

CCM takes a look at the last six stages and asks some questions about the week ahead.

First, the top 10 and the jerseys:

1) Tom Dumoulin (The Netherlands/Sunweb) 63:48:08
2) Nairo Quintana (Colombia/Movistar) +2:41
3) Thibaut Pinot (France/FDJ) +3:21
4) Vincenzo Nibali (Italy/Bahrain-Merida) +3:40
5) Ilnur Zakarin (Russia/Katusha) +4:24
6) Bauke Mollema (The Netherlands/Trek-Segafredo) +4:32
7) Domenico Pozzovivo (Italy/AG2R) +4:59
8) Bob Jungels (Luxembourg/Quick Step) +5:18
9) Andrey Amador (Costa Rica/Movistar) +6:01
10) Steven Kruijswijk (The Netherlands/Lotto-NL) +7:03
30) Michael Woods (Canada/Cannondale) +32:38
Blue KOM jersey: Dumoulin
Purple points jersey: Fernando Gaviria (Colombia/Quick Step)
White best young rider jersey: Jungels
Best Team: Movistar

Can Quintana still win the pink jersey?

There have been essentially three rounds to the Dumoulin vs Quintana scrap: Blockhaus (Quintana) before the second rest day and the time trial (Dumoulin by a country mile) and Oropa (Dumoulin) after. Although Dumoulin took almost three minutes from Quintana in the Stage 10 chrono, he really stamped his authority on the race on Oropa, beating Quintana on the Colombian’s terrain.

Quintana’s only recourse is to go after Dumoulin on all four stages in the mountains, with the realization that this first Grand Tour ends with another time trial. Dumoulin looks too strong to be beaten anywhere, but one might keep in mind the 3:52 he shipped to winner Fabio Aru on the final mountain stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España, falling from first to sixth.

Who is going to be on the final podium?

Four men vying for the last podium spot is the hottest race over the remaining five days. One minute and eleven seconds separates third from sixth, with Vincenzo Nibali closest to usurping Thibaut Pinot’s final step. Ilnur Zakarin looks like the one with the best form right now and Bauke Mollema is coming back after being knocked off the podium on Oropa.

Of the four, Nibali had the best time trial result on Stage 10. I have the strong suspicion that one of the four will win a stage next week.

The Top 10: A little farther back with farther odds of stepping on the podium are Domenico Pozzovivo–currently at what would be his second best Giro result–and the impressive Bob Jungels, who has a comfortable lead in the young rider competition. Costa Rican Andrey Amador’s 9th place helps to put Movistar in the team competition lead. Steven Kruijswijk will be thrilled to be in the top-10 again, although at the expense of unfortunate Tanel Kangert, Astana’s Estonian who had fought so well to 8th and then crashed out on Sunday. Kruijswijk will be looking over his shoulder at Adam Yates, 40-seconds behind.

Is Gaviria the best sprinter in the world right now?
Fernando Gaviria flashed on everyone’s radar in early 2015 when he beat Mark Cavendish two times at the Tour de San Luis while racing for Colombia. Snapped up by Quick Step by August, he has won 17 races since then, including nine WorldTour stages.

Until this Giro d’Italia, the 22-year-old had never been in a Grand Tour, and now has taken four stages, which puts him in the company of Cavendish, Andre Greipel and Marcel Kittel as sprinters who have recently won four or more Grand Tour stages in a single race. He leads the purple points jersey competition by a long stretch.

His power and tactical nous are tremendous for a cyclist his age, and he is able to beat all the current elite fast-twitch men. With a great Quick Step lead-out he will have many years of collecting Grand Tour victories and points jerseys on his palmares.

Will the Italians get a win?

What an embarrassment it would be if the 100th edition of the Giro d’Italia didn’t produce a single Italian stage win. The fewest Italian wins in a Giro over the last decade was four in the 2009 edition; there were six last year. To some this absence of stage wins is symptomatic of the decline of Italian cycling. A record low 43 Italian riders starting this year’s race and there is no Italian team at WorldTour level.

The closest an Italian has come to a win is Jakob Mareczko, runner-up to Gaviria on Stage 12. In the jerseys, Davide Formolo (Cannondale) leads the Italians with third place in the young rider competition. Nibali is fourth on GC and Kristian Sbaragli sixth in the purple points jersey game. The best Italian in the KOM race is all the way down in 14th. Seven out of the last 10 green/blue mountains jerseys have gone to Italians.

What can Michael Woods do?
After a long stay in the 22nd spot, Woods has started to drift down the GC. Except for Mount Etna, where he finished with the elite rider group, he has been unable to hang with the big dogs on the big climbs so far. However, his 30th is Cannondale’s second best spot, with Woods helping to hold Cannondale in seventh position in the team competition. He’s also the second best North American, Peter Stetina (USA/Trek) 18-seconds ahead of him.

He might be able to move up a few spots this week. The final week will produce some large breakaways, and he should try to get himself into one, his best chance at a stage win. I like his chances on Stage 17’s very long, gradual climb to Canazei.