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2016 Giro d’Italia preview: The contenders, the Canadians

Who are the favourites to win and podium at the Giro?

Over the last couple of days, Canadian Cycling Magazine had examined the course and the sprinters in anticipation of Friday’s start of the 99th Giro d’Italia. The questions remaining are: who will win the Giro, who will podium and who are the Canadians lining up in Apeldoorn, the Netherlands for Stage 1?

Let’s examine the favourites in order of their odds as of May 3.

Vincenzo Nibali (Italy/Astana):
The 2013 winner has been away from the race for the past two seasons. He has won all three Grand Tours and when he’s on his game, he crushes his competitors. Although he took the Monument Il Lombardia title last season, along with a Tour de France stage win on La Toussuire, Nibali didn’t win a stage race for the first time in three years.

This season he hasn’t shown sparkling form past a Tour of Oman win in February and didn’t give Mikel Landa much of a fight in the Giro Trentino. But The Shark of Messina is good at hiding his form. He’s a decent time trialist, which will serve him well in the three chronos on tap.

Nibali brings a strong team that must compete with Sky and Movistar for dominance. Jakob Fuglsang, Tanel Kangert and 2011 title holder Michele Scarponi compose a formidable lineup.

Nibali is the odds-on favourite to win his second Giro. Photo credit: Unipublic
Nibali is the odds-on favourite to win his second Giro. Photo credit: Unipublic

Mikel Landa (Spain/Sky): 2015 was a breakout year for Landa as he won two stages of the Giro while coming third and grabbing a stage of the Vuelta a España. He’s a powerful climber and brings a tough outfit with him that includes Mikel Nieve and Nicolas Roche.

Recently, Landa eked out a win in the Giro del Trentino over Kangert, with Fuglsang rounding out the podium. He was also 12th in Pais Vasco and 11th in the Settimana Internazionale Coppi e Bartali. All three results came in the last 41-days, as illness dogged the earliest part of his season.

Landa’s undoing might come in the time trials. In last year’s Giro, he lost four-minutes to eventual champion Alberto Contador in the long race against the clock in Valdobbiadene, a chrono with a similar profile to this season’s Stage 9.

Can Mikel Landa time trial his way to a Giro victory?
Can Mikel Landa time trial his way to a Giro victory?


Alejandro Valverde (Spain/Movistar):
At 36-years old, Valverde shows no signs of slowing down. The 2009 Vuelta champ has wins in the Ruta Del Sol, Vuelta a Castilla y Leon and La Flèche Wallonne on his 2016 palmares. Last year, he stood on the Tour de France podium for the first time, eyes glazed with tears of joy.

It’s amazing that he doesn’t count a single Giro in his 18 Grand Tour starts. Among the Giro contenders listed here, Valverde is somewhere in the middle of the ranks when it comes to time trials. Valverde can still throw down on the climbs but sometimes follows wheels. He needs to unleash the kind of aggression and fearlessness that wins him Classics.

Valverde brings a crack squad containing last year’s 4th place finisher Andrey Amador and a seemingly reborn Carlos Betancur.

Rafal Majka (Poland/Tinkoff): Third spot in last year’s Vuelta, three Tour wins and the 2014 polka dot jersey show that Majka is a formidable stage racer who must be followed. So far this season, his 5th in the Ruta Del Sol is a high mark. Like several Giro contenders, the Pole didn’t start the rainy final stage of the recent Tour de Romandie, where he’d been 15th.

Rigoberto Uran (Colombia/Cannondale):
After two runner-up spots, Uran says this is his best chance to win the race. After transferring to Cannondale from Etixx-QuickStep, the Colombian has been slowly ramping up his game heading into the first Grand Tour of the season, placing 10th in the Volta a Catalunya and sitting 12th in the Tour de Romandie before bowing out with Majka and Ryder Hesjedal ahead of the final stage.

Uran will have Davide Formolo and André Cardoso as his main lieutenants, and would have been well served by Michael Woods if the Canadian hadn’t had to withdraw because of injury.

Ilnur Zakarin (Russia/Katusha):
Zakarin, who rides similar to Chris Froome, has emerged over the past couple of years as reliable a stage racer for Katusha as Joaquim Rodriguez. Zakarin triumphed in last year’s Tour de Romandie and this season came fourth. His time trialing is decent and his climbing fearless.

Last year he took a stage of the Giro–his only Grand Tour–while placing a mild 44th, his time trialing partly to blame.

Zakarin has the services of the reliable Estonian and vowel-hoarder Rein Taaramäe, along with a raft to tough Russians.

Ilnur Zakarin is a rising force in stage racing.
Ilnur Zakarin is a rising force in stage racing.

Tom Dumoulin (The Netherlands/Giant-Alpecin): Readers might be surprised to find Dumoulin so low in the odds table, being that he’s the best time trialist of the bunch. Dumoulin came two stages (well, one really) from winning the 2015 Vuelta, showing a lot of grit that we knew he had and climbing prowess that we didn’t.

He’s had a good season so far with a 4th in the Tour of Oman, 12th in Paris-Nice and 5th in the Tour de Romandie.

So why such long odds? Dumoulin’s team isn’t very strong, and it was partly his isolation in last year’s Vuelta that saw him drop from first to sixth on GC. The final two mountain stages, with those daunting French peaks, might be too much for him. However, he could be in pink after the first stage.

Others: AG2R has two riders, Domenico Pozzovivo (Italy) and Jean-Christophe Peraud (France) who have podium aspirations. Esteban Chaves (Colombia/Orica-GreenEdge) might not wait for the Vuelta to show his stuff. LottoNL-Jumbo’s Steven Kruijswijk (The Netherlands) has the same odds as Ryder Hesjedal. Which brings us to…

The Canadians

Ryder Hesjedal (Trek-Segafredo): Four years ago Hesjedal achieved the pinnacle of Canadian professional cycling by beating Joaquim Rodriguez in a dingdong battle for pink. Over the last two seasons, Hesjedal has been thrilling in the Giro, especially in the final week, while fighting his way up the GC.

Last year, Ryder stomped from 133rd to 5th over three weeks, including a jump from 21st over the last 9 stages. He took two runner-up spots to Fabio Aru on the final two mountain stages.

The pattern was similar in 2014. Who could forget Ryder being the only one who could stick with Nairo Quintana on the slushy slopes of Val Martello? That year he rose to 9th with elan and what used to be called grip.

This season Hesjedal has gained form steadily and was in 39th at the Tour de Romandie when, like Majka and Uran, he retired before the final stage.

His new Trek-Segafredo team includes Fabian Cancellara, who might just take pink on the first stage, and sprinter Giacomo Nizzolo.

Svein Tuft (Orica-GreenEdge):
Memorable as the pink jersey wearer after the Stage 1 team time trial of 2014, Tuft will be doing his usual yeoman’s job for Chaves and sprinter Caleb Ewan. Several other Orica riders are stage win threats too. This is the Canadian hardman’s 9th Grand Tour start, including his 5th Giro.

Hugo Houle (AG2R): Houle is excited for his second consecutive Giro, hoping to get in more breakaways and targeting the Stage 9 time trial. He was 13th in the Tour of Qatar time trial in February.

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