2016 Giro d’Italia third rest day analysis
A look back before the final week of the Giro
One week ago on the second rest day, the 99th Giro had a very different complexion. Gianluca Brambilla was in pink with Etixx teammate Bob Jungels one second behind him, and Vincenzo Nibali and Alejandro Valverde were positioned to engage in several more rounds of favourites skirmishing while distancing the upstarts in the top 10. Though the number of sprinters had shrunk, there were still plenty of fast men ready to take on the ludicrously flat Stage 12.
One week later we have a very different situation. Brambilla being in 26th place is just the start of it.
First, a reminder of the GC and jerseys:
2016 Giro d’Italia GC
1) Steven Kruijswijk (The Netherlands/LottoNL-Jumbo) 60:41:22
2) Esteban Chaves (Colombia/Orica-GreenEdge) +2:12
3) Vincenzo Nibali (Italy/Astana) +2:51
4) Alejandro Valverde (Spain/Movistar) +3:29
5) Rafal Majka (Poland/Tinkoff) +4:38
6) Ilnur Zakarin (Russia/Katusha) +4:40
7) Andrey Amador (Costa Rica/Movistar) +5:27
8) Bob Jungels (Luxembourg/Etixx-QuickStep) +7:14
9) Kanstantsin Siutsou (Belarus/Dimension Data) +7:37
10) Jakob Fuglsang (Denmark/Astana) +7:55
Pink leader’s jersey: Steven Kruijswijk (The Netherlands/LottoNL-Jumbo)
Blue climber’s jersey: Damiano Cunego (Italy/Nippo-Vini Fantini)
Red points jersey: Giacomo Nizzolo (Italy/Trek-Segafredo)
White young rider jersey: Bob Jungels (Luxembourg/Etixx-QuickStep)
Team: Astana
The Dutch Giro: The race started in the Netherlands, had a Dutchman in pink after the first stage and is now set to have its first Dutch winner. Last Monday I commented that Steven Kruijswijk and Bob Jungels weren’t going away, but Jungels submitted to the will of the mountains.
LottoNL-Jumbo, a Dutch outfit, is on its way to matching the 2016 Giro successes of the Belgian teams Etixx and Lotto-Soudal. The squad has a stage win in the second time trial and a man in the pink jersey who hasn’t put a foot wrong.
Kruijswijk is now the targeted rider and will find second-place Esteban Chaves attacking in the Alps. But barring a jour sans like Tom Dumoulin on the 20th stage of last year’s Vuelta a España, Kruijswijk, whose top Grand Tour result so far was 7th in last season’s Giro, will take the triumph.
He came into the race with the same odds as Ryder Hesjedal: 120 to 1.
The Favourites Collapse: It took two stages to destroy the hopes of Alejandro Valverde and Vincenzo Nibali. Valverde lost a lot of time on Stage 14, and Nibali too showed some frailty in the face of a Dutch-Colombian juggernaut that took the stage by the scruff of the neck.
In Sunday’s time trial, a day in which he was expected to bite back, the Shark floundered. Valverde, podium obsessed, senses Nibali’s weakness and will attack in the mountains. Nibali will most likely trade punches with Chaves to usurp the runner-up spot, with Kruijswijk over two-minutes ahead.
Nizzolo, the Last Man Standing: Not only did Marcel Kittel leave the Giro and Elia Viviani get eliminated in time in week one, but three stage winner Andre Greipel, Arnaud Demare and Caleb Ewan also packed it in during week two.
This leaves Giacomo Nizzolo, last year’s red points jersey winner and current holder of the kit, ready to fill the vacuum. Having won it last season without taking a stage victory, he’ll be eying stages 17 and 21 to take the red jersey in style.
Sky and Gazprom Needed Those Wins: With Viviani eliminated on time and Mikel Landa forced to abandon from a stomach illness, Sky looked to Plan C. Having weathered criticism that the team doesn’t do well at the Giro and sends weaker teams, Mikel Nieve’s victory was redemptive for Sky.
Gazprom-RusVelo’s out of blue mountain time trial win was an echo of the Giro’s surprising decision to invite the Russian Pro Continental team as a wild card. Gazprom had done very little in the race up to Sunday’s triumph besides have a nice jersey, while Bardiani-CSF had taken a stage win and Nippo-Vini Fantini had Damiano Cunego aggressive in seizing and holding the King of the Mountain lead.
So this week—something from Wilier-Southeast?
Ryder Hesjedal’s Illness: Hesjedal was in 14th place on GC when a bad stomach illness forced him to abandon the Giro on the 14th stage. He was in position for his regular third-week rush up the GC, and would have likely crashed the top-10 before Torino.
It will be interesting to see how this affects Hesjedal’s preparation for the Tour de France where he will share protected-rider duties with Bauke Mollema.
It’s the first time Ryder did not finish a Grand Tour since the 2013 Giro
The Week Ahead: The climbing continues on Tuesday but the real doozies are Stages 19 and 20. Here, Chaves will try to steal the Giro, Kruijswijk will defend, Nibali will attempt to salvage something from another disappointing Grand Tour, Valverde will try to jump on the podium and other melees like Majka vs Zakarin vs Jungels will take place.
