What to expect from Woods, Pinot, Alaphilippe, Landa and Simon Yates in the Alps

The 106th Tour de France is on a knife edge heading into its final week, one that is characterized by three brutal days in the Alps bookended with sprinters delights. Six riders have a chance of wearing the yellow jersey in Paris, but they won’t be the only protagonists on Thursday and Friday and Saturday.

Three Days in the Alps

It won’t be just the grades of the mountains and the elevation to hamper the efforts of the Top Six, it will also be the heat.

Stage 18 is without a summit finish but sticks two HC-rated climbs in the latter half of 208 km: Col d’Izoard at 14.2 km of 7 percent and the Col du Galibier at 23 km of 5.1 percent peaking 20 km before the line in Valloire. The race should explode on the Izoard.

Stage 19 shoehorns two Cat. 3s, an HC and a Cat. 1 summit finish into 126.5. The pace will be frenetic right from the get go. The summit finish climb to Tignes has its steepest grades right after its foot.

Stage 20 is only 4.5 km longer than Stage 19, with the Cat. 1 Cormet de Roseland on offer soon after the start in Albertville. The final summit finish of the 2019 Tour de France is absurdly long at 33.4 km, but averages 5.4 percent.

Alaphilippe Flagging

One of the key protagonists of this Tour, yellow jersey holder Julian Alaphilippe finally showed cracks in his facade on Sunday, losing time to all his rivals, including 27 seconds to Geraint Thomas, who is closest to him at the top of the GC. Alaphilippe said after the stage that he felt the efforts of defending his yellow jersey. If the swashbuckling Frenchman fades in the Alps, who is poised to swoop into the race lead?

GC (without Alpahilippe) | #TDF2019

G.Thomas
Kruijswijk +0:12
Pinot +0:15
Bernal +0:27
Buchmann +0:39

The tightest GC after two weeks of racing for a long time. Only 2006 and 2008 Tour de France have some similarities to this situation.

— ammattipyöräily (@ammattipyoraily) July 22, 2019

Pinot and Landa rampant

So far, Thibaut Pinot has been the best climber in the Tour. The only rider in the top-6 who lost 1:40 in the Stage 10 crosswinds, he just keeps coming and is now the bookmakers’ favourite to win the race. His team has been fantastic, especially David Gaudu, and along with Jumbo-Visma and Movistar, it has really been giving it to Ineos.

Landa took even more of a thrashing in the crosswinds than Pinot, and at +4:54 is no longer a realistic threat to take his first Grand Tour title. However, with more of a free rein than that of the top-6, with teammate Alejandro Valverde right behind him in the GC and Nairo Quintana resigned to working for him, he has a chance at the podium. Expect him to be a major character in Act III.

Woods’ Prospects

Sunday revealed Michael Woods’ resurgence after the effects of several crashes, as he was in the day’s breakaway, matched the accelerations of his breakmates in the early part of the race and even took maximum KOM points atop the first climb. Although television announcers Matthew Keenan and Robbie McEwan put him in the polka dot jersey race, Woods is too far back in the competition and won’t be the only likely lad in the breakaways.

With Tanel Kangert on Rigoberto Uran duty for EF Education First–Richie Porte covets Uran’s final spot in the top-10 and is less than a minute behind the Colombian–Woods will be looking for breakaways and stage win opportunities in the Alps.

Yates Unleashed

Last year, the Yates twins broke their curse of disappointing Grand Tour GC results when appearing in them together; Simon won the Vuelta a España while helper Adam finished 45th. This year, the duo are back to their old ways: protected rider Adam is 24th while Simon is 52nd. Now that Adam doesn’t have a prayer to finish inside the top-18, Simon is free to hunt stage wins, and his form is killer, with two victories over four stages. Watch for him to ignite things in the breakaways looking for the hat trick.