How much fitter can I get this winter?
A guide to how many more watts you can put out by next spring
With winter around the corner, you may be thinking, 2025 is my year! You may also be paying attention to one key number: FTP (Functional Threshold Power). This metric measures the highest average power output you can sustain for an hour and is crucial for setting training goals and intensities. As the colder months keep us indoors more often, the question arises: how much can you realistically improve your FTP over the winter season? Whether you’re gearing up for next year’s races or want to tackle spring group rides stronger, it’s worth finding out.
FTP gains depend on several factors
Peter Glassford, of Consummate Athlete, says that the potential for improving your FTP during winter training depends on a few key factors—especially your current fitness level and the time you’re willing to invest.
Some factors are beyond control
Glassford also highlights that while time and effort play significant roles, there are elements you can’t control. “Genetics are a part of it—some people are naturally predisposed to higher power outputs,” he says. “But beyond that, it’s also about how much time you can dedicate to training. I personally had a higher FTP when I was training a lot, but now that I’m not as committed, it’s come down.”
This makes winter the perfect time for a dedicated focus on FTP. As outdoor conditions push riders inside, structured sessions can fill the training gaps. But Glassford stresses that the gains are proportional to how much work you’re willing to put in. “For someone who’s already fit, aiming for a 5-10 per cent increase over the winter is a good goal,” he says. “So, if your FTP is around 250 watts, you might push it to 275 by the time spring arrives.”
Still try to ride outside
As much as indoor trainers are a winter staple, Glassford recommends testing your FTP in the conditions you plan to race or ride in once the snow melts (if there is any.) “If you’re a gravel racer, do a test on gravel. If you’re a roadie, test on the road when you can,” he advises. “Even if it’s cold out, those tests will give you a better idea of how your power translates to real-world conditions.”
He also suggests using the same bike you’ll be racing on. “It adds a layer of specificity to your training and helps you understand how to maintain power in varied environments.”
Winter workouts to boost your FTP
Winter might not seem like the most thrilling time for cycling, but it can be ideal for focusing on FTP. Glassford shares a favorite workout for those dreary days on the trainer. “I like what I call a ‘slow boil’ session,” he says. “You start at a tempo effort, then sweet spot, and finish with threshold efforts. Begin with 3 x 10 minutes at each level.”
The idea, he explains, is to gradually increase intensity with each interval, but never to the point of exhaustion. “You want to be able to complete the session multiple times over the winter,” he says. “Over time, you can progress to 2 x 20 minutes or 3 x 15. It’s about building that ability to sustain power without burning out.”
Steady progress wins the race
Glassford emphasizes that improving FTP is about consistency, not just aiming for big numbers. “It’s about getting comfortable riding close to your threshold without constantly maxing out,” he explains. “If you can reach the end of winter and feel that your threshold pace is more manageable, that’s a sign of real progress.”
He also notes that understanding your own limits is key. “It’s not just about pushing to see a higher number on your FTP test; it’s about knowing what’s sustainable for you over longer periods.”
Takeaways for winter FTP gains
If you’re determined to see gains over the winter, remember that it’s not just about the number—it’s about applying that power in the right way. By testing in realistic conditions and gradually increasing your workload, you can set yourself up for a strong start when spring rolls around. Use the winter months to focus on structured training, but don’t forget to have some fun with it. A bit of consistency now can pay off big-time when the snow or cold is gone and the race season kicks off.