Tour de France preview: the contenders

Saturday marks the start of the 99th Tour de France with a 6.1 km prologue time trial in Liege, Belgium. There are just over 100 km of time trials in this edition, and summit finishes are in short supply. On paper, especially with Andy Schleck (RadioShack-Nissan) out with a cracked pelvis, it looks to be a yellow jersey struggle primarily between reigning champion Cadel Evans (BMC) and in-form Bradley Wiggins (Sky). But paper doesn’t crash, fall ill or run out of glycogen.

The question posed by Canadian cycling fans is can Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin-Sharp) win the Giro-Tour double? The answer is: we will soon find out. But it hasn’t been done in 14 years, is exceedingly rare and demands a double-peak in form that is almost impossible in modern cycling.

On the other hand, Hesjedal is the team’s captain and he has Americans Christian Vande Velde and Tom Danielson (17th and 9th respectively at last year’s Tour), David Millar, Dave Zabriskie and Dan Martin at his disposal. Hesjedal has an excellent shot at the podium in Paris, but will more likely be a top-ten man. However, with the carnage that last year’s crashes inflicted on the favourites and the general unpredictability of July, he might just surprise – and delight – the cycling world once more.

The long-list of favourites includes Wiggins, who crashed out last year along with other podium candidates like Andreas Kloden, Alexander Vinokourov, Janez Brajkovic, Chris Horner and Jurgen Van Den Broeck, who will all be present in Liege. Third in the thrilling 2011 Vuelta a Espana, Wiggins has won Paris-Nice, the Tour de Romandie and Criterium Dauphiné this season, a fantastic record.

Evans suffered from a sinus infection early this year and hasn’t won anything beyond the Criterium International. Worse yet for the Australian was having Wiggins almost catch him in the Dauphiné’s 53 km time trial despite starting two minutes ahead of the Brit. There’s a chance that Evans’s form will gel in France and his team can match Wiggins’s powerful Sky squad.

Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) is staking almost everything on the Tour this year. The 2010 Vuelta winner skipped the Giro d’Italia and will be leaving Liquigas next year. He had a successful early campaign, winning Tirreno-Adriatico and climbing onto the podium of Milan-San Remo and Liege-Bastogne-Liege. He’ll be looking to take advantage of the descents on mountain stages that don’t finish on summits and show initiative for three weeks if he wants to upset the form book.

Rabobank’s Robert Gesink might finally come of age at the Tour de France. The Dutchman came second to Andy Schleck in the young rider’s white jersey competition of 2010 while coming fifth on GC and has finished in the top seven twice at the Vuelta. He can climb, as his Tour of California winning performance on Mount Baldy in May confirmed. His climbing results at the Tour de Suisse were mixed, but a fifth-best placing in its time trial and a fourth place on GC shows that he has promise and might ride a lot of luck to an upset.

Frank Schleck (RadioShack-Nissan) filled in at the Giro at the last minute, but then withdrew from a crash injury that found him once more crossing swords with team manager Johann Bruyneel. Well, Bruyneel won’t be at the race due to the United States Anti-Doping Agency’s investigation of him, Lance Armstrong and several others. Frank just finished battling Rui Costa (Movistar) tooth and nail at the Tour de Suisse to come runner-up. Last year’s third-place man, Schleck has the best chance from a veteran team containing Kloden, Horner and Haimar Zubeldia.

Levi Leipheimer (Omega Pharma-QuickStep) was hit by a car while training in early April, breaking his leg. His recovery has been fantastic, with sixth place in California and third place in Switzerland showing that he’s peaking at the right time. A capable follower of steady tempo climbing in the mountains and an excellent time trialist, team’s GC man could mount the podium.

Denis Menchov, three time Grand Tour winner and two time Tour podium inhabitant, finds this Tour to his liking. He’s as good of a time trialist as Evans; in fact, he just won his first Russian national time trial championship. An inconsistent climber, Menchov has a Katusha squad ready to work for him and bags of experience.