2016 Giro d’Italia: second rest day analysis

The riders of the 99th Giro d’Italia have a day to recover and rest after nine hard stages and long transfer from The Netherlands. We get a day to mull over what has happened so far in this engaging, wide-open race.

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First, the GC, Canadians and competitions.

2016 Giro d’Italia GC
1) Gianluca Brambilla (Italy/Etixx-QuickStep) 34:33:04
2) Bob Jungels (Luxembourg/Etixx-QuickStep) +0:01
3) Andrey Amador (Costa Rica/Movistar) +0:32
4) Steven Kruijswijk (The Netherlands/LottoNL-Jumbo) +0:51
5) Vincenzo Nibali (Italy/Astana) +0:53
6) Alejandro Valverde (Spain/Movistar) +0:55
7) Tom Dumoulin (The Netherlands/Giant-Alpecin) +0:58
8) Mikel Landa (Spain/Sky) +1:18
9) Rafal Majka (Poland/Tinkoff) +1:45
10) Jakob Fuglsang (Denmark/Astana) +1:51
16) Ryder Hesjedal (Canada/Trek-Segafredo) +3:29
89) Hugo Houle (Canada/AG2R) +39:00
170) Svein Tuft (Canada/Orica-GreenEdge) +1:04:13
Pink jersey: Gianluca Brambilla (Italy/Etixx-QuickStep)
Red points jersey: André Greipel (Germany/Lotto-Soudal)
Blue mountains jersey: Tim Wellens (Belgium/Lotto-Soudal)
White young rider jersey: Bob Jungels (Luxembourg/Etixx-QuickStep)
Team: Etixx-QuickStep

Anyone’s game after first week: Eleven seconds separated Nibali, Landa, Kruijswijk and Valverde in the long TT, with Tom Dumoulin only 26-seconds faster than the pokiest of the four. Those five riders occupy 4th to 8th place on GC with 27-seconds between Kruijswijk in 4th and Landa in 8th.

Stage-wise there are some real doozies ahead in the Dolomites and later in the French and Italian Alps. This has been an intriguing race so far, with a subtle tug of war between Nibali and Valverde, so the skirmishes ahead should be dandies.

Landa has been following wheels but his surprising chrono kept him in the game. Valverde’s attack on the white gravel of Alpe di Poti cracked Dumoulin and the other strong men—Landa, Nibali, Kruijswijk and the now time-trial damaged Chaves and Zakarin–leaped aboard his train.
Nibali, Valverde and Brambilla have teammates in the top-10, and they can use them to make their rivals cover attacks.

Dumoulin and his director sportif have been denying the Dutchman was a contender since before the race started in the Netherlands, and the minute given up on Alpe di Poti looked to confirm this. No, he did not pull the pink jersey back in the race against the clock like some believed, but he’s still right in the fray.

However, now he is saying that he’ll intentionally lose time this week so he can get in a late breakaway and win a stage. We’ll see if this is a bluff at the tough end of Tuesday’s Stage 10.

Belgian teams leading the way: Lotto-Soudal and Etixx-QuickStep have dominated this race. The squads’ three stage wins each have been similar: two sprint triumphs and two victories riders soloing out of breakaways.

The teams also own all the jerseys now. Andre Greipel and Tim Wellens sport the points and mountains jerseys respectively, while Brambilla and Jungels are clad in pink and white.

Things look even more promising for Lotto-Soudal as Greipel lost two sprint rivals over the last two stages. Etixx’s double stage winner Marcel Kittel went home while Elia Viviani (Italy/Sky) was eliminated on time.

Kruijswijk and Jungels not going away: Giros are famous for having surprise riders on the final podiums. Over the last 15-years we’ve seen David Arroyo, Jose Enrique Gutierrez, Thomas De Gendt, John Gadret, Marzio Bruseghin, Eddy Mazzoleni and Jose Rujano all stand on the podium. This trip onto the (usually) third step has stood as their career highlight.

Dutchman Kruijswijk and Luxembourger Jungels have had fantastic races so far, and they have potential to be podium men, but they’ll have to call on their all climbing prowess over the remaining 12-stages. Kruijswijk has earned two Giro top-10’s and has been in the top-5 since the race reached Italy.

Jungels’ only completed Grand Tour was 27th in last season’s Tour de France. In Sunday’s time trial, he climbed from 14th–another white gravel casualty–to second. Only disaster would prevent Jungels from keeping the white jersey.

Hesjedal taking shorter route into top 10: In last year’s Giro Ryder Hesjedal rose to 5th on GC from 133rd, including starting Stage 10 in 21st place. In 2014 he went from 165th to 9th over the course of the race, beginning Stage 10 in 17th place.

This season the lowest he’s been on GC is 41st and he’s kept his time losses to a minimum, though he loses time every second stage. He’s only +3:29, while in the two previous editions of the Giro he was +6:16 and +4:40 starting Stage 10.

Hesjedal looks sharp and tends to have his best performances in the third week.

How long can Brambilla keep pink? Brambilla’s retention of the pink jersey was a surprise, but he probably won’t have it much longer. Teammate Jungels, only a second in arrears, has so far proved a better climber than Brambilla, and there are many roads tilting up in their futures.

Brambilla has two 13th Grand Tour placings on his palmares: the 2012 Giro and last season’s Vuelta a España. In Spain he lost about 12:00 over the last 12-stages, but didn’t lose much in the way of position on the GC.

The week ahead: There are two tough Dolomites tests over the next six stages. Stage 14 has a mild uphill finish, but it packs four mid-stage climbs into 40-km and then throws the 10-km, 9% Passo Giau and Cat. 2 Passo Valparola at the riders near the end of a 210-km day. Stage 15 is the second chrono in eight days and third of the race, this one an uphill 10.8-km where the riders get a little flat run-up at an 8.4% climb with double digit sections.

Even Tuesday’s stage will see fireworks on the Cat. 1 and Cat. 3 climbs that conclude the day.

However, there’s also this on Stage 12 for Greipel and the remaining fast men.