2015 Tour de France: first rest day analysis

What an opening week! Bookended by two chronos, with thrilling wins, chaos and fine competition in between, the 2015 Tour de France has been engrossing so far. Let’s take a look at some of the action in week one.

Good luck, Ivan Basso: Ivan Basso, double winner of the Giro d’Italia, was diagnosed with testicular cancer on the rest day. The Tinkoff-Saxo rider, who was languishing near the bottom of the GC, immediately left the Tour to have surgery. Twitter was full of messages of hope and support from rival teams.

All the best, @ivanbasso. Hope to see you soon back on the road. pic.twitter.com/ZnPau3RgvS

— Movistar Team (@Movistar_Team) July 13, 2015

Stage 2, the decisive day: The margins between the favourites in the time trials were fairly small–only 45-seconds separated Tejay Van Garderen’s BMC from Rigoberto Uran’s Etixx-QuickStep in the team chrono, with Chris Froome, Nairo Quintana, Alberto Contador and Vincenzo Nibali’s squads in between. The gaps were even smaller in the opening individual time trial. In fact, the most decisive day in week one was Stage 2.

When Quintana got into trouble behind a crash in Rotterdam with 57-km remaining, Etixx-QuickStep dropped the hammer in the crosswinds. While Froome, Contador, Van Garderen and Uran made the first group, Quintana and Nibali did not and lost 1:28 to their rivals. This was also the start of Thibaut Pinot’s problems. More on him below.

The green jersey competition: Week one was sprinty, and the battle for the points competition has been hot one. Even though the points system was changed to favour stage winners (and not Peter Sagan), the Slovakian joker still wears green on the race day, and just might through the hilly second week.

Andre Greipel (Germany/Lotto-Soudal) and Mark Cavendish (Great Britain/Etixx-QuickStep) are right in the thick of the competition due to their stage victories. When will John Degenkolb (Germany/Giant-Alpecin) get his reward? This might go down to the wire in Paris.

Crashes: Unfortunately, wrecks are often decisive in the Tour; the disappearances of Froome and Contador from last year’s edition due to injuries didn’t leave the rampant Nibali much competition. In the first week both Fabian Cancellara (Switzerland/Trek) and Tony Martin (Germany/Etixx-QuickStep) crashed wearing yellow and had to retire. Orica-GreenEdge, usually a crack TTT outfit, started Sunday’s chrono three men down and finished dead last. This carnage isn’t through either.

The French: Last year’s French Revolution cranked up expectations for this season’s Grande Boucle. But the 2014 podium man Pinot has had a disastrous race so far, and his tantrum on Stage 4 after suffering a mechanical wasn’t the end of his misery as he now sits 8:05 down. Last season’s runner-up Jean-Christophe Peraud and young Romain Bardet, Ag2r’s one-two punch, are 17th and 21st respectively, and had to watch the spotlight swing over to teammate Alexis Vuillermoz after his Stage 8 victory on the Mur de Bretagne.

The best placed Frenchmen are Lotto-Soudal’s Tony Gallopin and Giant-Alpecin’s Warren Barguil, both of whom dropped out of the top-10 after the team time trial. Even with a Tour stage victory on his palmares, Gallopin isn’t a man for top-20 placings in Grand Tours.

With the roads about to kick up in week two, French hopes might lie with the younger Barguil, who dazzled with two stage wins and an eighth place in last year’s Vuelta a España.

The Canadians: Ryder Hesjedal has been very notable in the Grand Tours over the last two seasons, with strong comebacks for top-10 placings in the 2014 and 2015 Giros d’Italia and a stage victory in last year’s Vuelta.

However, Hesjedal is having a brutal Tour de France. He’s 122nd, 36:28 down on Froome, with four Cannondale-Garmin teammates ahead of him on GC. Hesjedal has a way of coming on strong in the final week, and maybe this will garner him a stage win in the Alps, but there’s little chance he’ll finish in the top-20. If things don’t improve he might place lower than his worst Grand Tour finish of 70th.

Svein Tuft’s team Orica-GreenEdge has been damaged in the crashes, and there’s a chance that current lanterne rouge Michael Matthews might not be able to drag his sore body over the Pyrenees, Massif Central and Alps. Tuft will just try to survive and be a good teammate, possibly helping Simon Yates to a stage victory.

Week Two Preview: Following the rest day, the peloton will immediately be hit with Tuesday’s high mountains. There are two HC and one Cat. 3 summit finishes in the first three days, with peaks like the Col d’Aspin and Tourmalet to assail along the way.

Following the Pyrenees, the race turns northeast to ramble through four medium-mountain days in the Massif Central. Only one stage in this set comes close to a summit finish–Stage 14, with the peak of the Cat. 2 Cote de la Croix Neuve (3-km of 10.1%!) coming 1.5-km from the line in Mende.