2017 Vuelta a España contenders preview: who can stop Froome from winning the double?

The Vuelta a España, the final Grand Tour of the season, begins on Saturday with a 13.8-km team time trial in Nîmes, France. Canadian Cycling Magazine looked at the course in its first preview. In this preview CCM examines the GC contenders.

Chris Froome (Great Britain/Sky): After winning his fourth Tour de France, Froome is aiming to join France’s Jacques Anquetil (1963) and Bernard Hinault (1978) as the only riders to have won the Tour-Vuelta double. Froome is among several in this list who rode the Tour, and all have to wonder about how depleted they are to start one Grand Tour hard on the heels of another. Nairo Quintana and Thibaut Pinot’s diminished form in July’s Tour after good performances in May’s Giro d’Italia loom large.

Froome will have an advantage in the time trial and brings another strong, stultifying team containing Mikel Nieve, Wout Poels and Diego Rosa. Having come Vuelta runner-up thrice to JJ Cobo, Alberto Contador and Nairo Quintana over the past six seasons, Froome says he had “unfinished business” with the race.

Vincenzo Nibali (Italy/Bahrain-Merida): The 2010 champion took his first Grand Tour podium for new squad Bahrain-Merida at the Giro d’Italia in May, finishing only 40-seconds back of winner Tom Dumoulin. Nibali is still capable of astonishing performances, as in last year’s Giro, but brings a medium-strength team, as Ion Izagirre and Kanstantin Siutsou still recover from injuries.

He’ll definitely be one of the riders who pushes Froome to the limits–keep in mind that his disastrous 40th in last year’s Tour was his only Grand Tour finish outside the top-7 since 2008. Froome himself names the Shark of Messina as his biggest rival. Nibali will be looking to redeem himself for getting the boot from the 2015 Vuelta after hanging onto a team car.

Fabio Aru (Italy/Astana): The 2015 champion is back for his third Vuelta. For a while in July, it looked like Fabio Aru might be the man to knock Froome off his Tour de France throne, but illness in the final week and poor positioning on Stage 14 scuppered his chances.

Aru has a fine main helper in Angel Lopez, back from injury and with two stage win notches in his belt since June. Like nearly everyone on this list, Aru will lose at least 2:00 to Froome in the time trial.

Alberto Contador (Spain/Trek-Segafredo): It’s his last rodeo. Honoured with the number 1 on his jersey, the three-time champion (2008, 2012, 2014) will want to go out in style; that is, he’ll be attacking relentlessly and hatching schemes. It was Contador who attacked at the 6-km mark in last year’s Stage 15 to thwart Froome’s bid for the title.

However, the 34-year-old will realistically set his sights on the podium as opposed to tying Roberto Heras’s record of four crowns. Like Ilnur Zakarin, the time trial won’t hurt him as much as some of the other GC contenders. Adios, El Pistolero.

Romain Bardet (France/AG2R): This is not only Bardet’s first Vuelta, but it’s also his first non-Tour de France Grand Tour. It’s hard to believe he’ll have much left after banging his head against the Sky wall for most of July. Bardet will have a decent team around him, including the Giro’s 6th place Domenico Pozzovivo, Alexandre Geniez, Tour workhorse Axel Domont and Canadian Hugo Houle.

Ilnur Zakarin (Russia/Katusha): Zakarin has quickly become one of the names that are always bandied about when it comes to stage race and Grand Tour contenders, but his 5th in May’s Giro is by far his best Grand Tour result and he hasn’t won a stage race since 2015.

However, at 27 he is in the prime of his career, he loves to attack and the Russian in a good time trialist. I’m predicting 5th for him.

The Orica-Scott Trio of Simon and Adam Yates and Esteban Chaves: Orica-Scott is in the enviable position of having three very good Grand Tour stage racers in this contest. (BMC has Tejay van Garderen, Nicolas Roche, Rohan Dennis and Tour de Suisse runner-up Damiano Caruso, but this line-up is one step down.)

Last year, Chaves looked like the Next Big Colombian in coming runner-up at the Giro and third at the Vuelta, but a knee injury has limited his 2017. He was anonymous in placing 62nd in his first Tour de France. Still, he should be a major supporter for the Yates boys.

The Yates twins are in their first Grand Tour together since the 2015 Tour de France where they were both mediocre. Between them, they have won the Tour’s best young rider competition over the past two years, while coming fourth (Adam, 2016) and seventh (Simon, July).

Adam, ninth in the Giro this season and recently 5th in the Tour of Poland, might have more left in the tank this late in the year.

Others:
Cycling hasn’t been particularly fair to Steven Kruijswijk (The Netherlands/LottoNL-Jumbo) over the past couple of seasons, but I think the worm will turn and the clothes-hanger shouldered Dutchman will get a top-10.

Michael Woods (Canada/Cannondale-Drapac): There’s no reason why Woods shouldn’t finish higher in his Vuelta debut than he did in his Grand Tour debut at the Giro where he was 38th. His best stage race result this season was 12th in Pais Vasco and his most recent result was 26th in June’s Tour de Suisse.

Rafal Majka (Poland/Bora-Hansgrohe): After two tough Tours de France–albeit one with a KOM jersey–Majka looks to get back into a Grand Tour top-10. He was on the Vuelta podium two seasons ago and fifth in last year’s Giro. Recently runner-up in the Tour of Poland, he’ll wish he had Leopold König at his elbow.

Louis Meintjes (South Africa/UAE-Emirates) is shipping back to Dimension Data next year; Mr. Consistency will follow wheels into the top-10.

After a remarkable Tour de France, Warren Barguil (France/Sunweb) took the even more remarkable step of signing with Pro Continental outfit Fortuneo-Oscaro for next year. Look for this exciting guy to make a bid for another climber’s jersey while teammate Wilco Kelderman looks to the GC.

Marc Soler (Spain/Movistar) and David de la Cruz (Spain/Quick Step): these fellows are home tour outsiders. Soler finds himself in the unusual position of being Movistar’s GC man–his podium in the Ciclista a Catalunya and eighth in the Tour de Suisse show he’s got skills to pay the bills. But his last race was 103rd in the Vuelta a Burgos. Although back-from-injury Julian Alaphilippe, Bob Jungels and whiz kid Enric Mas are all in Quick Step’s line-up, de la Cruz was 7th last year and recently 3rd in the Vuelta a Burgos behind Mas.

Wildcard Teams: Joining the usual Vuelta wildcards Caja Rural and Cofidis are new Irish outfit Aqua Blue Sport (decked out 2017’s obligatory white Grand Tour alternative jersey) and Colombian team Manzana Postobon, clad in a kit that is sure to stand out in the increasingly dull-hued WorldTour peloton.