Holmgren’s XCC win heats up Canada’s Olympic selection race
Jenn Jackson, Emilly Johnston, Marin Lowe among Canadians with a shot at Paris this weekend in Czech
When Isabella Holmgren won Friday’s under-23 short track World Cup in Nove Mesto, it was a fantastic U23 debut for the Ontario racer. It also kicked the selection race for Canada’s lone Olympic spot in the women’s cross country race this year into high gear.
The selection, to be clear, was already dramatic. Canada is projected to earn one spot in the women’s race in Paris. That is something that is very unlikely to change when the qualification period ends after this weekend’s racing in Nove Mesto. There is a wave of young talent all competing for that spot.
Holmgren and Lowe announce arrival
Holmgren’s short track win on Friday in Nove Mesto doesn’t actually count towards Canada’s Olympic selection process. It does, though, give an indication of what she’s capable of in tomorrow’s under-23 women’s XCO World Cup and that event does count towards selection. Before Friday, we all knew Holmgren would be good. How soon she would be good was the question. Friday was her first World Cup mountain bike race as an under-23. It is also the last race in the Olympic selection window. That doesn’t leave much time for the junior XCO (and cyclocross) world champion to get comfortable in the under-23 field. Though after Friday, that doesn’t look like it’ll be an issue.
Marin Lowe also made her under-23 World Cup debut Friday. Finishing seventh, she also showed she’s already comfortable moving up the field. Lowe finished second behind Holmgren at junior world championships last year, too, so will also be one to watch on Saturday.
Dazzling U23 XCC races in a muddy Nové Město! 🤯
Riley Amos remains unbeaten in the 2024 WHOOP UCI @MTBworldseries while Isabella Holmgren climbs on the top step for the first time this season. 🥇#MTBWorldCup pic.twitter.com/HgYyKAIWNN
— UCI MTB (@UCI_MTB) May 24, 2024
Can they qualify for the Olympics, still?
For either Lowe or Holmgren to make it to Paris, there is an extremely narrow path to qualification. The only way they can qualify, at this point in the selection process, is to win Saturday’s u23 XCO race. That would mean unseating Germany’s Kira Bohm, who has yet to lose a World Cup XCO yet this year. In fact, Holmgren’s XCC win Friday ended a four-World Cup winning streak for the German.
Saturday’s under-23 women’s race will be broadcast live, for free, on the UCI Mountain Bike World Series YouTube Channel.
Emilly Johnston and Jenn Jackson return to Europe
The path to qualification for Holmgren and Lowe is so narrow because of the successes of Emilly Johnston and Jenn Jackson. The Olympic selection window counts results over a two year period. Cycling Canada has its own, very detailed selection process that ranks those results.
Emilly Johnston
Emilly Johnston already has three under-23 XCO World Cup podiums during that period. Two this year in Brazil (a second and a third) in Brazil and one in 2023 in Nove Mesto. But she does not yet have a win. If Holmgren or Lowe finish second on Saturday, the spot would still go to Johnston because Cycling Canada’s selection document states that in the case of a tie, “the athletes’ second-best eligible results will determine priority.” Johnston finished fifth Friday and, of course, will also be racing for the win on Saturday.
No matter what happens on Saturday, who actually gets the spot won’t be decided until the end of Sunday’s elite women’s XCO.
Jenn Jackson
Jenn Jackson is currently the top-ranked elite  woman for Canada. She currently has the most UCI points by a solid margin and is the elite women’s national champion. But, for her to qualify to go to Paris, she needs to finish 12th or better in Sunday’s elite women’s cross country race. If she does that, though, that will superceed any results from the under-23 women’s race.
Jackson came extremely close to meeting Cycling Canada’s qualification standards at both of the Brazil World Cup rounds earlier this year. In Mairiporã, the Liv racer was 14th. A week later, Jackson was riding in the front group of five in Araxa when a flat tire pushed her back to 17th. Had she stayed in the top five, she would have met the first selection criteria.
In a confusing twist, Cycling Canada has a different standard for World Cups in Europe compared to ones held outside of Europe. So on Sunday in Nove Mesto, Jackson only needs to finish 12th or better. But her 12th place at Mont-Sainte-Anne World Cup in 2023 does not meet the qualification standard. (Cycling Canada argues that fewer entries at non-European World Cup’s makes them less competitive).
Holmgren, Johnston, Lowe and Jackson aren’t the only Canadian women with a shot at Paris. There are some dark horses and newcomers with speed. Ella MacPhee is looking very strong in the under-23 women’s racing. Like the Holmgren and Lowe, she’ll have to win Saturday to qualify. In the elite women’s field, any Canadian that finishes 12th or better could take the spot (but only one), not just Jackson. Sandra Walter looks to be returning to form based on her results at Pan American Continental Championships and Laurie Arseneault has threatened a big result for a couple of seasons.
One spot, many talents
Regardless of what happens in Nove Mesto this weekend, the takeaway for fans at home should be that the Canadian women’s cross country program is looking healthier than it has in a few years. Jenn Jackson leading out the Araxa World Cup was the first time a Canadian woman has been on the front of an elite World Cup XCO since before 2020 and it was thrilling to see the maple leaf up on screen like that.
That so many riders have a chance to qualify for the Olympics this summer is an obvious sign of momentum building for the program. Paris may be looming on the horizon, but the 2028 Games in L.A. aren’t that far away, either. After the departure of several big names in Canadian mountain biking, like Catharine Pendrel, Emily Batty and Haley Smith, a new wave of talent is moving in to take their place.
Why does Canada only get one spot?
What is unfortunate in all this is that only one Canadian woman will get to go to Paris. In Tokyo, Catharine Pendrel and Haley Smith raced. In Rio in 2016, Pendrel and Emily Batty finished third and fourth. Paris will be the first time in a long time that Canada doesn’t qualify more than one women’s spot.
That’s because only the top eight ranked nations get to send two athletes to the Olympics. This is determined by the UCI and IOC’s qualification process. We covered that in detail here, but basically, the first eight nations get to send two athletes. Nine to 19 get one athlete each.
The Canadian women are currently ranked 12th with 4932 points. Great Britain is holding down the eighth spot on the rankings with 5499 points. That leaves a 567-point deficit that Canada would have to overcome this weekend to earn a second spot in Paris. With an elite XCO win worth just 250 points and an under-23 XCO win with 125, it is, mathematically, a nearly impossible feat. Even if Evie Richards had a disastrous weekend and Canadians won both u23 and elite XCO races, it wouldn’t be enough to move up into eighth.
What about the men?
While the Canadian women’s selection race is decidedly more dramatic, the men’s spot will also be decided based on this weekend’s racing in Nove Mesto. Like the women, the Canadian man are on track to qualify just one spot in Paris.
Carter Woods currently leads selection, based off of his series of World Cup wins while racing in under-23s. He and Gunnar Holmgren are both racing in the elite men’s XCO on Sunday. If either of them, or any other Canadian man, are able finish in the top-12 there, that would earn them the spot in Paris.
Holmgren was close to earning the spot when, in Vallnord last year, he was riding in the top 10 before a flat tire saw him finish 20th. This year, Carter Woods was 15th in Araxa, Brazil. If both finish in the top 12 on Sunday, whoever is better ranked will get the spot.
Unlike the women, the Canadian under-23 men are out of the race. Because Woods has two under-23 World Cup wins from 2023, no other under-23 men can take his spot. The best they could do would be to match that with a win Saturday, with Woods still getting the spot based on his second best result (also a win).
The Canadian men are currently ranked 11th. That puts them 545 points outside the current eighth position needed to qualify a second spot. Again, a tall order with just one weekend remaining in the qualification window.
