2017 Giro d’Italia preview: The contenders

The first Grand Tour of the season has a very challenging course, but a well-balanced one with 69-km of time trials and five summit finishes. Who will wear the pink jersey of the 100th edition on May 28 in Milan?

Giro d’Italia Vets

First off: following Michele Scarponi’s death, Astana has opted not to replace the Italian, who was to be its leader, in the line-up. The squad will start with eight riders instead of nine and not assign the leader’s number to anyone. Scarponi was awarded the 2011 Giro title after Alberto Contador was stripped of results due to a clenbuterol positive. He also fourth thrice. Scarponi was instrumental in Vincenzo’s remarkable comeback win last year, while finishing 16th.

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Nairo Quintana (Colombia/Movistar): The 2014 champion is the odds-on favourite to win his second title and third Grand Tour in general. His form has been fantastic, with wins in the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana and Tirreno-Adriatico. He also just finished the Vuelta Asturias, where he took the queen stage and placed runner-up.

Quintana will have to limit his losses on the long time trial and have a buffer going into the last day’s chrono to Milan, the way he did in beating Chris Froome at the Vuelta a España last year. He’ll have a strong team, but without the strength of Alejandro Valverde, who has been out of this world this season, and is being reserved for a one-two punch at the Tour de France.

Vincenzo Nibali (Italy/Bahrain-Merida): Nibali’s second Giro win last season was in the most extraordinary of circumstances–coming back from 4:43 down on the pink jersey to overleap three riders in the last two mountain stages. This might have been the Shark of Messina’s finest hour and perhaps it’s all downhill after this for the man who has taken all three Grand Tours.

Nibali’s main problem is that he doesn’t have as strong of a team anymore. Bahrain-Merida is no Astana, and the Italian just received news Monday that Lithuanian workhorse and stage threat Ramunas Navardauskas is out with gastroenteritis. Like Quintana, Nibali’s not fantastic at time trials.

After a very flat Tirreno-Adriatico, Nibali won the Tour of Croatia last week. As the main Italian competitor, he’ll have the tifosi in his corner.

Tom Dumoulin (The Netherlands/Sunweb): After coming two mountains away from winning the 2015 Vuelta, the Dutchman had arrived as a Grand Tour contender. But last year Dumoulin dropped out of the Giro with saddlesores and the crashed out of the Tour.

Dumoulin has gone all in for the 2017 Giro, a race with enough time trial kilometres to suit The Butterfly of Maastricht. He was third in the Abu Dhabi Tour, 5th in Strade Bianche and 6th in Tirreno-Adriatico this season.

Dumoulin’s downfall might come on the climbs, especially in the wicked final week. He’ll bring Wilco Kelderman and Laurens “Foamy” Ten Dam to the pink party.

Steven Kruijswijk (The Netherlands/LottoNL-Jumbo): Oh, Colle dell’Agnello! Steven Kruijswijk will forever be haunted by the site of his undoing last season while wearing the pink jersey and holding a 3:00 lead over second place Esteban Chaves on Stage 19. His crash just after the peak of that fated mountain saw him first lose the race lead and then tumble off the podium the next day.

The distinctively square-shouldered Dutchman was fantastic until that moment. Not only did he come second on the uphill time trial but he also held his own in the long, rolling chrono. Two second place spots in mountain stages and an overall consistency earned him that 3:00 gap with three stages remaining. Can he reach those lofty heights again?

Kruijswijk’s run-up has been tricky as he placed 8th, 21st and 7th in the three stage races he finished, abandoned Paris-Nice because of illness and dropped out of last week’s Tour of Yorkshire after crashing in Stage 1.

Bauke Mollema (The Netherlands/Trek-Segafredo): Another Dutchman, Bauke Mollema is Trek’s main man, with Alberto Contador–and El Pistolero’s new best buddy Jarlinson Pantano–being reserved for the Tour. Mollema has been in the top-12 of Grand Tours six times, with fourth in the 2012 Vuelta his high mark.

Mollema’s first three stage races of 2017 were very good. He won the Vuelta de San Juan in Argentina, took fourth in the Abu Dhabi Tour and ninth in Tirreno-Adriatico. But he’ll need to have a Kruijswijk-through-the-first-18-stages-of-the-2016-Giro performance to have a chance at the podium.

Geraint Thomas (Great Britain/Sky): This is it. Finally, Thomas has the leadership of a Sky Grand Tour outfit. And after winning the Tour de Alps, he’s full of confidence. Outside of getting caught up in another Sky-in-Spain miss-out in Stage 6 of the Volta a Catalunya alongside Chris Froome, he has had a good season.

The time trials will appeal to Thomas, and Sky sends along a typically burly squad containing Mikel Landa–a podium threat himself–Diego Rosa, Kenny Elissonde and the irrepressible Vasil Kiryienka.

The mitigating factor is this: he’s never finished higher than 15th in ten Grand Tours.

The Giro d’Italia Debutantes

Thibaut Pinot (France/FDJ): While his French rival Romain Bardet concentrates on the Tour this season, Pinot has gone a different route, racing his first Giro. Since a pedestrian Volta a Valencia in February, Pinot has been very hot, with a third in the Ruta del Sol, third in Tirreno-Adriatico and runner-up in the recent Tour de Alps.

What might worry Pinot is that he finished behind Giro rivals Thomas in the Tour de Alps and Quintana in Tirreno-Adriatico.

Although Pinot has improved at both descending and time trialing–winning a chrono at last season’s Tour de Romandie–his strength is in climbing. He won’t have a cracking team around him, but if he stays out of trouble until the last week, he might be good to match his podium spot at the 2014 Tour.

Tejay van Garderen (USA/BMC): Poor old Tejay. He gets a lot of stick for not living up to expectations and has terrible luck. But he’s also very inconsistent. Last year he earned four top-10’s in stage races but what people remember is the 29th in the Tour and climbing off the bike at the Vuelta due to fatigue.

This year, hope is high, as he has been rising in stage race results all season, going from 57th to 21st to 5th and 6th in his last two WorldTour races. The 6th at the Tour de Romandie was especially impressive because he crashed in the prologue and had to climb from 113th, seizing his GC spot with a third in the final day’s time trial.

BMC is giving Tejay a formidable squad. Rohan Dennis might bust out himself after sixth in the Tour Down Under and runner-up in Tirreno-Adriatico, where he finished above Dumoulin, Mollema, Thomas and Pinot. Ben Hermans can certainly impress: he was 14th in the Vuelta last year and won this season’s Tour of Oman.

Others to consider for the 100th Giro d’Italia

Domenico Pozzovivo (Italy/AG2R) has won a stage of the Giro and come 5th on GC, and after top-10’s in his last three stage races, including third in the Tour de Alps, he’ll be aggressive and set the tifosi roaring. Bob Jungels (Luxembourg/Quick Step) was best young rider last year while placing 6th; the chronos will be to his liking. Adam Yates (Great Britain/Orica-Scott) was in second at Tirreno-Adriatico when he had to abandon, but he bounced back with 8th at the Volta a Catalunya. After having his Giro debut scuttled by a crash in the Liege-Bastogne-Liege last year, Michael Woods (Canada/Cannondale-Drapac) is ready for his big pink ride. Twenty-first at the Tour Down Under, Rusty had a couple of mediocre stage race results before 12th in the Pais Vasco, the final TT dropping him down from 5th.

Besides Rusty Woods, soon-to-be-40-year-old Svein Tuft will represent Canada for Orica-Scott. This will be Tuft’s sixth Giro and 11th Grand Tour. The Canadian famously wore pink for one day at the beginning of the 2014 Giro.