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2023 Tour de France preview: Vingegaard vs Pogacar Round III on a climber’s course

Woods, Houle and Boivin ready for Saturday's start in Spain

Photo by: Sirotti
June 29, 2023
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The 110th Tour de France begins on Saturday with a hilly opener in Bilbao, Spain, the second foreign Grand Depart in a row. It’s a climber’s course containing plenty of mountains, some on short stages, with Puy de Dôme and Grand Colombier the most notable summit finishes, and the sole time trial 22 kilometres in length and culminating with a short, steep ascent. After the tragedy at the Tour de Suisse, cycling needs a feel-good Tour, and Mark Cavendish’s bid to own the stage victory record outright might be that story. Throw in Wout Van Aert, Mathieu van der Poel, Tom Pidcock, swashbuckling Frenchman Julian Alaphilippe and three Canadians, and you’ve got a recipe for a cracking July.

The Course

The 2023 Tour France is almost entirely contained to the southern half of the country, kicking off in Spain’s Basque Country. After the Pyrenees, the route heads northeast across the Massif Central towards the Alps.

This season’s Tour launches in Bilbao on Canada Day, challenging the riders with a spiky profile of 3300 climbing metres, and following up the next day with more ascending. There are sprint opportunities for Cavendish and company as the race heads into France. One might think that Week 1‘s highlight is Stage 6 with Pyrenean climbs like the Col d’Aspin, the monumental Tourmalet and the summit finish on Cauterets Cambasque, but Stage 9 gives July 6 a run for its money by serving up a Puy de Dôme summit finish, the mountain back for the first time in 35 years.

Sprinters will get their chance again at the start of Week 2, but Stage 13 brings back the mountains and finishes on Grand Colombier in the Jura Mountains at the end of 138 kilometres. The next day the riders face the Col de la Ramaz and Col de Joux Plane before descending into Morzine. The week ends with a two-step climb: 11 percent Côte des Amerands leading to a 7.7-kilometre haul up to St-Gervais Mont-Blanc.

Week 3 kicks off with the sole time trial of the race. It’s 22 km long and ends on the 2.5 km, 9.4 percent Côte de Domancy ascent to Combloux. Stage 17 the next day some consider to be the race’s queen stage, although it doesn’t end on top of an Alpine climb but instead with a 6-km descent to Courchevel. However, four climbs are packed into 166 km: Col de la Saisies, Cormet de Roselend, Cote de Longefoy and Col de la Loze. After two days more suited to the sprinters, the penultimate stage shoehorns five Vosges passes into 133 kilometres. The whole show transfers north for the final procession into Paris on July 23.

The Yellow Contenders

One of two guys is going to win this race, two-time victor Tadej Pogačar or current champion and 2021 runner-up Jonas Vingegaard. Both came tearing out of the gate in the spring, seemingly winning everything in sight, until Pogačar broke his wrist in Liège-Bastogne-Liège and didn’t race for two months. Meanwhile, Vingegaard utterly dominated the Critérium du Dauphiné.

Sure, Pogačar returned to competition last week by winning the Slovenian time trial title by five minutes before picking up the national road championship as well, but there are legitimate question marks about his form. However, Pogačar, the UCI’s number one ranked rider, is right when he says there’s more pressure on Vingegaard to repeat.

Vingegaard won two stages of the Dauphine and took the title.

Both bring very strong teams. Jumbo-Visma has Wout Van Aert, Wilco Kelderman and Sepp Kuss in its squad, while UAE-Emirates counters with Rafal Majka, Marc Soler and Tour de Romandie champion Adam Yates.

The Podium Contenders

After missing two editions, 2019 victor Egan Bernal is back, part of Ineos’ Movistar-styled Trident along with Dani Martinez and Carlos Rodríguez. The three prongs recently poked around the Critérium du Dauphiné where Rodriguez was the sharpest at ninth and Bernal was 12th.

Jai Hindley, the 2022 Giro pink jersey, is the more likely of the two top Australians to stand on the final podium. The Bora-Hansgrohe man finished just off the podium at the Critérium du Dauphiné. Ben O’Connor of AG2R-Citroën is the other favoured Aussie; he’s the guy that kept Hindley off the Dauphiné podium and came fourth in the 2021 Tour.

Enric Mas, Movistar’s protected rider, was one of four fellows who underperformed at the Dauphiné, but he had severe gastro-intestinal distress. After three Vuelta a Espana runner-up spots, it’s time for the Spaniard to improve on his best Tour finish, fifth, and step up to the podium. Mas’ compatriot, Mikel Landa of Bahrain-Victorious, was the another Dauphiné underperformer, and he’ll be looking to honour departed teammate Gino Mäder with glory.

After beating Vingegaard on GC at Paris-Nice, David Gaudu instantly became the Great French Hope. But 30th in the Dauphiné after a month off from racing doesn’t bode well for the bespectacled Groupama-FDJ man. The top Frenchman is more likely to be one of his teammates: Thibaut Pinot on his farewell tour, or new national champion Valentin Madouas, who was 10th last season. Romain Bardet of DSM-Firmenich has been consistently good this season too.

Giro winner in 2019, Richard Carapaz hasn’t impressed all year for his new EF Education-Easypost squad, but can he rally and return to the Tour podium in late July?

Dane you wouldn’t have considered a top-5 possibility a month ago but must now: Lidl-Trek’s Mattias Skjelmose. Dude won the Tour de Suisse and national title within one week. Chapeau.

Skjelmose was top dog at the Tour de Suisse.

The Canadians

Michael Woods, Hugo Houle and Guillaume Boivin are back again for the second year running. Last year’s 109th Tour de France was a momentous one for Canadians, as Houle became the first Canuck in 34 years to win a stage of the world’s most famous cycling race. You can count on Houle to be in the breakaways again this edition.

Woods has a good chance at a high GC place this year, with the lack of time trial kilometres. He comes off his second consecutive La Route d’Occitanie title after second place in the truncated CIC-Mont Ventoux. Depending what happens in the first week, Rusty might even throw his hat into the KOM ring. Woods hasn’t finished his last three Grand Tours.

The Canucks and their Israel-Premier Tech brethren will be clad in a special Tour jersey that resembles Groupama-FDJ’s kit from 2018-2022.

The 2023 Tour de France

Mountain/summit finishes in bold.

Stage 1: July 1 Bilbao–Bilbao (Spain)
Stage 2: July 2 Vitoria-Gasteiz–San Sebastian (Spain)
Stage 3: July 3 Amorebieta-Etxano (Spain)–Bayonne
Stage 4: July 4 Dax–Nogaro
Stage 5: July 5 Pau–Laruns
Stage 6: July 6 Tarbes–Cauterets Cambasque
Stage 7: July 7 Mont-de-Marsan–Bordeaux
Stage 8: July 8 Libourne–Limoges
Stage 9: July 9 Saint-Léonard-de-Noblat-Puy de Dôme
Rest day 1: July 10 Clermont-Ferrand
Stage 10: July 11 Vulcania (St-Ours-les-Roches)–Issoire
Stage 11: July 12 Clermont-Ferrand–Moulins
Stage 12:July 13 Roanne–Chiroubles ou Belleville-en-Beaujolais
Stage 13: July 14 Châtillon-sur-Chalaronne–Grand Colombier
Stage 14: July 15 Annemasse–Morzine
Stage 15: July 16 Les Gets–St-Gervais Mont-Blanc
Rest day 2: July 17 St-Gervais Mont-Blanc
Stage 16: July 18 Passy–Combloux (TT)
Stage 17: July 19 St-Gervais Mont-Blanc–Courchevel
Stage 18: July 20 Moûtiers–Bourg-en-Bresse
Stage 19: July 21 Moirans-en-Montagne–Poligny
Stage 20: July 22 Belfort–Le Markstein
Stage 21: July 23 St-Ouentin-en-Yvelines–Paris, Champs-Élysées