George Hincapie: ‘To win Paris-Roubaix, you can’t have friends’

Sunday is Paris-Roubaix, undoubtedly one of the hardest Classics of the season. In his long career, former pro cyclist George Hincapie always made it a big goal to win every season. He came close as well–finishing second twice, as well as being in the top-ten several times. (The results have since been annulled.)

After Mathieu van der Poel’s win at Sunday’s Tour of Flanders, Hincapie, like most analysts, think the Dutchman is the man to beat. He was impressed with the world champion’s attack up the Koppenberg–in the wet many riders had to walk up it. When Hincapie was third at Flanders, it was also wet and he said it was tough to ride the whole way, but he did–as opposed to second place finisher and teammate Leif Hoste who was forced to walk.

“For me of course it was about having the power to ride up, but it’s also about the right line and avoiding traffic,” He said. But he also says it’s quite different now with the gear available to pros. “I rode up it last year in the wet and it was totally fine. Nowadays, it’s a totally different ball game,” he adds. “I mean you’re obviously in a peloton so if a guy stops in front of you have to walk. But now you have 36 x 30 gears and big tires which helps.”

Then versus now

Hincapie watches all the big races and says that some of the style of racing has definitely changed.

“In my day, the early attack was more of a TV attack breakaway. Get ahead, and get some exposure,” he said. “Now the early attacks are a bit more dangerous or you’ll see some really good riders going, especially with like 100 km.”

The aggressive style of racing significantly intensifies the competition, especially considering the harsh weather conditions at Flanders, making it exceptionally challenging. Van der Poel himself said he was totally empty after the day, as it was so brutally hard. In fact, there was an early move with Mads Pedersen, who immediately launched from a lead group after MvdP bridged, but would end up fading.

Saving matches for the finale

When he was ultimately caught, he didn’t have much left in the tank. Afterwards he said it may not have been the best move. “”If we’re going to use hindsight, I shouldn’t have done it, but it wouldn’t have been a top result today anyway,” Pedersen said after. “I took the chance and tried, but I wasn’t close.”

Hincapie also wondered about the early attack. “He attacked as soon as Van der Poel caught them, but maybe he had lost his confidence after his crash [at Dwars door Vlaanderen] and wanted to get up the road,” the American said. “But then he ended up doing so much work and it’s impossible to replace that kind of energy.

Who will win Paris-Roubaix?

That being said, the former Tour de France stage winner does think Pedersen is the biggest challenge to Van der Poel and he’s picked the Dane to win. The question is, how? If Hincapie were racing today, or was a directeur sportif, what would he do to beat the seemingly unbeatable Alpecin – Deceuninck rider?

At Flanders, Hincapie said, it looked briefly like van der Poel was isolated–which is ideal for riders like Pedersen. “But then it came back to three teammates. To beat him, it’s just a question of trying to get up away from him and making him isolated,” Hincapie said. “Try to make him do more work than normal. It’s just that he’s just so dominant. At Flanders he just found a way to always be there. But I would definitely try to be ahead and put him on the defensive before really hard selective sections. If you wait till then he’s just gonna run away from you.”

Making the selection

The lead-up to the selective sections can be totally chaotic and super-fast. Teams will essentially lead out their team leaders in order to make sure they are at the front when the cobbles begin. Does it make sense to get ahead early on, to avoid the carnage? Or is it best to just mark your rivals and make sure no one dangerous gets ahead?

“It depends on the weather. If the weather is bad, the early selections can be good because then you’re not fighting. You’re away from the danger. If it’s really bad conditions you can crash at any time,” Hincapie said. “If that’s the case, it’s a whole different ball game and it might not be a bad idea to get up the road as much as you can.”

Saving energy as much as possible

But all the while, it’s important to try and conserve energy as well. “That means not doing much work and just floating in the break,” he adds. “But the contenders will figure out where they can conserve and make those guys in the back do a lot more work.”

With the brutal roads and weather, Roubaix is always marked with crashes and mechanicals. Bad luck at the wrong time can ruin your chances. How much can you control bad luck? And if so, how?

Trying to have a few incidents as possible at Paris-Roubaix

Clearly being at the front at the critical sections is important. “Even the first section is crucial. There will be a big fight for the top-20,” he said. “And everybody knows where it’s at, and everybody knows you have to be at the front. So it’s just a massive, massive, epic, scary battle. And it just continues on from there.”

That’s why having a strong team is so important at Paris-Roubaix, given that the fight to be at the front is akin to a leadout of a final sprint at a race.

Taking risks

“The good guys have to do everything they can to conserve energy, so not be in the wind and wait until the last minute,” Hincapie said. “But even when they’re waiting for the last minute, they have to stay in the first 20 to 30 guys but then that bubble is also really dangerous. You have to have full focus. Sure, you’re taking risks. It’s all about risk management and saving energy.”

Considering the gruelling nature of Paris-Roubaix, riders vying for victory must adopt a distinct mindset. It’s far different from a regular race on the tarmac. Hincapie admits that every year when he found himself on the start line, he had to adjust his mindset to being a warrior. To go fully beast mode.

The brutality of Paris-Roubaix

“You can’t have friends to win Roubaix,” he said. “So you have to have eyes in the back of your head when you feel like handlebars coming up on your side. You have to close the door and not give them the space because if you do that too many times you lose 20 spots. If you’re not moving up, you’re moving back.”

Given the unique character of Paris-Roubaix, only those confident in their ability to win or contribute to their team’s success will participate. It’s a risky race where a nasty fall can sideline your season. That being said, is there anyone who traditionally doesn’t do the race Hincapie would like to see some day?

Pogačar-Roubaix?

“I mean Tadej Pogačar for sure as he’s so dominant,” he said. “That’d be pretty awesome to see what he can do with this because the guy can do pretty much anything. It was great seeing Matteo Jorgenson at Flanders, so that would also be cool to see him do it someday.”

Hincapie is going with Pedersen for the win on Sunday. “We know he’s got the form. He probably was a bit off in the crash,” Hincapie says. “He’s going to want revenge.”

You can watch Paris-Roubaix on FloBikes.com