Tour de France betting odds as a means of preview

A couple of years ago I was at Caesar’s Palace in Las Vegas watching a wall of televisions broadcasting hockey and basketball as a buddy bet on every period of the Habs game. One a whim I approached the sport betting desk and asked for the odds on the 2010 Tour de France out of curiousity as to how the American wagering experts would rank the contenders. After a couple of futile minutes, a manager informed me that they didn’t have odds for the TdF and couldn’t remember the Palace ever having them, even in July.

Fortunately, the Europeans and Brits have us covered. For speculative purposes only, we can look at the odds to shed some light on the favourites. Not surprisingly, Alberto Contador is the odd-on fave at 4 to 6. His domination of the Giro was so thorough that the punters figure he can do the double for the first time since Marco Pantani in 1998.

Even though Andy Schleck has shown only a couple of days of stellar form this season, he’s still the second most likely to win at 11 to 5. Interestingly, most overseas odds-makers have a special Without Contador category, in case Alberto’s conscience gets the better of him or cycling’s governing bodies develop eleventh-hour intestinal fortitude. In that category, Andy is king!

Bradley Wiggins will be dismayed to hear that the winner of the Dauphiné Libéré over the last decade tends not to achieve the same pinnacle of achievement at the Tour de France. On the other hand, Cadel Evans will be pleased to discover that the Dauphiné’s runner-up tends to outstrip its winner at the Tour. The Australian is third at 30 to 1.

Ivan Basso is a surprise at 34 to 1, for he’s displayed no form at all this year. On the other hand, Robert Gesink of Rabobank’s 44 to 1 odds seem spot-on. Everyone is predicting that, unburdened by Denis Menchov-ushering duties, Gesink will fly free. Many are talking podium for the young Dutchman.

Someone with a twenty-spot and a lot of faith can bet on Ryder Hesjedal at 474 to 1.